Thursday, 30 March 2017

Them Times Are a Changin'


Hello Traders.
T-Model Trader is back with his 11th blog post for the beginner series. I hope you all enjoy.
James Orr

Them times are a changin’
A few weeks back, I was at the local Indian grocery store stocking up on some supplies. As I have been shopping at this place for many years now, I have got to know the family that owns and runs the place.
While walking the isles, I could hear this rather animated discussion taking place out back, between their twin boys aged 14. I could tell it was the brothers, rather than a friend, simply because siblings have this way of communication that can be totally devoid of any compassion what so ever.
It sounded to me as though they were trying to convince each other of something. Amidst this discussion, I caught what I thought was some trading lingo dispersed amongst the barbed words and less than disguised insults. From time to time their father would look at me and roll his eyes and shake his head.
Eventually I asked him what was happening out in the back room. He told me that they were trading. You can understand my interest, so I asked him if I could go out back and see what they were doing. I had met the boys several times before as they work in the shop from time to time. However I had to knowledge of this trading interest.
So I stick my head around the corner and say hi to the twins. Momentarily they pause and then immediately start again trying to convince the other of their point of view. I sat down and looked to the computer to see what it was that they were doing. Lo and behold, it was the Eur/Usd forex pair.
I had mentioned in an earlier blog that I wanted to find a market to trade during my daytime here as the Ftse is an evening affair for me. After much looking I decided to go with the Eur/Usd pair as it seemed to have the greatest movement during the Asian session, which can be slow going at times. There is a nice time slot between 11am to around 2pm in the afternoon when there is some good price action happening. I have been doing this daytime trading now since the beginning of February this year.
I turned to the boys and said “I trade this pair as well”. As soon as those words moved beyond my mouth I knew that I should have kept quiet as they both went at me attempting to get me to take sides. At one point the father walked past and said “Good luck”.
My brain went into survival mode and I said to them that they can each present their thoughts on which way the market may move and try to convince me with their insights.
I knew that I was in a dammed if you do, dammed if you don’t situation, however I was really interested to know their thinking. So, to avoid inflaming the conflict any further, I got out a coin to toss as to who goes first. Their mother, who had been out back in another room (obviously aware of what was happening) walked in momentarily and with a rather mischievous grin said, “Boys, leave some meat on him…he needs to get home”. I think my smile must have been shaking around the edges from the look she gave me. A few minutes later she walked from the room and said “Passion they have, tolerance they don’t”, with a knowing rise of the eyebrow.
So, they each had their turn.
At the time I recall that the market was at a key zone and I was waiting for further insight myself as to what direction it could possibly go. I could have made an argument for either way as well. So it wasn’t surprising to hear these two sides being presented.
After listening to their respective positions, I told them that in my view, I thought both had really good and insightful observations and that personally I was waiting for further information from the market in order to see the direction. I don’t think that either of them were expecting that answer as they remained momentarily quiet for a second or so, before that inevitable teenager look that alluded to “what use are you”!

Listening to them bickering and arguing was like objectively experiencing the noise in my head at times when I am attempting to analyze this market. The euro$ is solely my own trading project. In making the decision to trade this pair, I wanted to do so without any outside input what so ever. As such, I don’t read anyone else’s views etc.
It has been a mixture of demo-land and live trading thus far. Just as I explained in an earlier blog, if there are a few too many losses then I go back to demo until I settle it all down again and rack up some wins.
All in all it has been a most wonderful experience. After wanting to have a daytime market for quite some time, to finally engage in it is great. That daytime slot around my midday has a really nice pace to it. It’s much slower than the London or US sessions, but it can equally put in some nice rallies as well.
It is that aspect of doing it alone thou, which has been the best part of it all, as I sink or swim purely on my own merits. Many a time I have felt like the two brothers at each other, attempting to convince the other part of me that the market is going this way or that. Although no one can hear my mind hammering out the analysis, from within it sounded just like the boys….loud and furious. From that experience of the brothers, I realized that I needed to quieten down the internal racket as it really was non-productive (not to mention exhausting at times).
I then realized something important not long after, when in a state of total indecision I finally just let go of it all and acknowledged that I had no idea. At that moment, it was like a massive weight had been removed from on top of me. I realized that there are times when it is necessary to just sit back and wait for further information to print in the market, and that it is okay to not instantaneously know. I guess this is what is meant by the phrase “Sitting on ones hands”.

I cannot help but think regarding the brothers and their trading, how radical the changes that have taken place on this planet. At their age I was building tree houses or knee deep in the mud at the local creek, after I got home from school. As their father explained to me, they have a small account of money from their shop work. They are allowed 2 trades per week….which is one each. If they blow the account then they have to work again to get some capital. And importantly, the parents are not involved in anyway. It is purely the boys own project.
Taking responsibility is a profound means in which to progress.
As their Mother said, the passion is there. It would be interesting to see them in a decade to find how they have fared.
It really is a journey this trading reality.
Till next time
T-Model

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