Hello Traders.
After a brief pause in the beginner blog series last week - due to me having email issues! - we are back with Craig's 7th post.
I can still actually remember the email he references in this post coming into my inbox. And I am delighted he managed to figure a way through his issue!
I hope you're all having a great trading week.
James Orr
HEADS OR TAILS
I’ve been going over the whole of last year in my head and looking back over
some of my past screenshots, showing some of my successful trades and some not
so successful trades, also my diary notes and even diary scribbles.
I came across a few different scenarios and various struggles and have
decided to pick one out randomly and go onto explain it in a little more depth
as well as mention the ridiculous method I chose to use to overcome the problem
at hand during that particular time and maybe it could be applied by someone
going through difficulties after reading this post. Be warned it’s a tedious if
not obvious activity I chose, yet effective and it worked for shifting my mind
back to a healthy state and moved me forward to continue my trading today.
Regardless of what it takes and how silly it may seem, it’s all about SURVIVAL
(makes me feel better about myself anyway)
Prior to coming up with this method I’m about to explain, not to mention
how insanely weird it actually felt doing as I recall and smile thinking back –
“yes Craig you still did that, move on” …
The method was yet another outcome from my many experiences with
different losing trades and different emotions.
‘I’m Struggling
to accept the same % for both months but it seems true to the decimal which is
odd. I’ve checked my figures and they seem fine.
(This
was me being over confident and explaining that both months were the same, +
6.7%)
Reading
the above statement today makes me cringe! I guess it’s normal, I guess its
natural when one is doing well to only but feel confident in one’s own ability!
I actually wrote much more within the email, I guess it was just my way at the
time to inform James of how well I was doing. Like showing a teacher how good
and how fast you understood them in class! If only at that point then I could
have foreseen how the following month would have played out and how my mindset
took a dive for the worse, would I have felt differently and acted differently
in my approach to the losses I was about to embark on.
The
graph below is the result of the month following on from above.
It’s
very clear to see the reversal in not only my trading results but also the
reversal in my mindset. This all started off from a few losers stacking up on
top of one another and eventually causing a shift in my thoughts, leading to
negative outcomes, over and over again! The thing that made it even harder was
the fact that I was well aware of the downwards staircase I was creating but
yet felt like I couldn’t stop it. Obviously, I could have halted my trading and
in some situations wish I had of done before continuing on. However, continuing
on lead me to that activity I decided to then try.
So,
it became apparent after looking back at my results and acknowledging I was
doing something wrong somewhere. It was either my technical ability, my mindset
skills or even both combined. I was hypnotized by my downward equity loss and
feeling disgusted, yet It was an ongoing feeling of disappointment from the
start of the losing month through till the end of the losing month.
Then
came the realization that it was clear I was not correctly working in
probabilities nor did I fully understand or better to say, was ignorant to what
exactly working in probabilities fully entailed. I found this difficult to
accept about myself at the time and I remember thinking... ‘You dickhead
Craig’. It was clear I was placing so much emphasis and emotion on trying to be
in control of each individual trade that I had completely forgotten what the
meaning of probabilities fully meant! Sounds nuts hey? Somewhat stupid even? I
know, I know, I guess I had got so caught up with feeling a success on demo for
months on end previously with no emotion due to it not being real monies traded,
to being over confident, then having a few good months transitioning over to a
live account and then BOOM – REALTY CAUGHT UP WITH ME
I
ended up reverted to YouTube and other endless sources of material based on
mindset and thinking in probabilities and realized that in order to rectify
these mistakes I had been making then I needed to fully understand and start
acting in the correct manor or else trading could never really take off for me.
Then
it came to me, super simple but damn was it affective! I needed something quick
sharp and I knew it needed to be a repetitive process in order to drive it into
my head as quickly as possible and for it to stay there and digest!
HEADS
OR TAILS CRAIG?
I
went shopping for a whiteboard, blue-tac and a whiteboard marker pen.
The
whiteboard was placed on the wall straight in front of my trading desk, I would
literally look up from my monitor and boom there was the whiteboard smack bang
in my face.
On
the whiteboard, I made 25 lines in a row which I then called my ‘sample size’.
I then went and raided the coin jar for a dollar coin and began tossing the
coin in my seat over and over.
I
continued coin tossing and scribbling down on a tally chart on paper my results
of how often heads or tails came out and in what sequence. I did this for 25
times and transferred the results onto my whiteboard each time. This would then
complete my 25-sample size and show the random result of each outcome. I
continued to do this whilst trading, my motive being I needed to sink the term ‘random
outcome’ in my mind.
It
was at the time, the only thing I could think of to try. Of course, I knew tossing
an even sided coin each time would only ever show a random outcome each and
every time. I knew this but I wanted to get it into my head so that if I had a
‘proven EDGE’ and then approached the charts with the correct mindset knowing I
shouldn’t place any more emphasis on any one particular trade and that I should
base my results on a number of trades, like a sample size of 25 trades for
instance. Then over 25 trades, with a proven edge, would I then begin to see
better results and have a better understanding of the workings of probabilities.
Trading
as we all know, has random outcomes. It’s so easy to place so much emotion and
control on any 1 particular trade no matter what we are taught from the
beginning, which is where I believe many people run into difficulty.
I
eventually over did the coin tossing and writing the random sequences down on
paper, yet it instantly made me record each and every trade result on my
whiteboard and within the 25-sample size. I would write either a W for Win or a
L for Loss on each line until the 25 lines were complete with trades I had
taken on the FTSE. I did this over and over again for weeks on end and my
mindset shifted to the point where even though I would have 3 losers marked on
my board after one another, I knew a winner or winners were only around the
corner providing I trade my edge accurately!
The
above method sounds a bit ‘simple’ I know, I’m the poor bugger who actually
thought up the process for myself and would even hide the coin when my partner
came home from work. The last thing I wanted to look like being sat at home
each day was a mad man, tossing a coin and recording heads or tails on a
whiteboard in his living room. Eventually I had to explain my madness to her
but that’s a whole different story for another day.
So
there it is, a simple method anyone can apply if they feel the need and are in
what I call struggle city. Its just a learning curve like many others and
everyone if persistent enough will find their way regardless in the end. The
above clearly shows I had a mixture of issues I needed to sort out, from over
confidence to a clear understanding of what it means to work and think in
probabilities. Sometimes it’s the most basic of things we can get wrong depending
on how we view or see something from the start.
Before
finishing up with this post, I’d just like to mention that I also believe I ran
into difficulty alongside the above issues by trying to ‘subjectively’ trade.
Trying to subjectively trade and having the above confusion on probabilities
running parallel with emotions and over confidence is a nightmare waiting to
happen. Therefore, I’m a big believer that if anyone was to have the same
issues or confusion as I did then it’s always worth reverting back to a
mechanical approach of trading and ironing out the above prior to mastering the
art of subjective trading!
Hi Craig, at first I found it impossible to believe it to be true that you actually stuck a whiteboard on the wall with just blu tack, the only conclusion I can come to is that you had a bulk lot of blu tack or you don’t have woodchip wallpaper as I do.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that I appreciate how you pass on all the tips you used yourself to get where you are as a decisive trader. I think, ultimately you are successful Craig because you identified your problem and found your own solution to it, one which works for you and I think that’s what we all have to do, find an answer which fits us personally. I always enjoy knowing what other people have done to make things better because sometimes I get a light bulb moment and realise ' I never thought of that’.
I do love whiteboards and I don’t think Microsoft excel can ever really kill them off. There’s an honesty to a whiteboard, its in your face everyday instead of that excel sheet hidden in your secret folder hiding all your losses and failed trades.
Thanks Gregory. Although, just so you know the whiteboard isn't too large, therfore blutack was a far better choice than screwing it to the walls of a rental property and has worked a treat. Its also very useful to write down targeted 'goals' that are in view for you to be reminded of daily.
ReplyDeleteThe heads and tails method is somewhat laughable, yet from watching some personal development videos which explained what i actually needed to know, it still needed the practical exercise in order for the mental shift i was in need of to work :)
All the best.